How Long Will South Africa Survive?

How Long Will South Africa Survive? examines the state of South Africa's politics, economy and society in the post-apartheid era. Johnson analyzes the African National Congress (ANC) government's policies and their impacts since coming to power in 1994. The book traces patterns of corruption, economic mismanagement, and institutional decay through multiple presidential administrations. It investigates the intersections between party politics, state capture, and South Africa's changing role in the international community. Johnson draws on extensive research and historical context to assess South Africa's trajectory and stability. The analysis encompasses key sectors including mining, agriculture, education, and public services. The work raises fundamental questions about democracy, governance and development in post-liberation states. Its examination of how revolutionary movements transition to governing parties offers insights beyond South Africa's specific circumstances.

Readers view this as a critical analysis of South Africa's political and economic challenges under ANC rule. Many cite Johnson's detailed research and understanding of South African politics since 1994. Liked: - Clear explanation of corruption's impact on state institutions - Statistical backing for economic arguments - Historical context that connects past to present issues - Prediction accuracy about Zuma presidency problems Disliked: - Some view tone as overly pessimistic - Perceived bias against ANC leadership - Limited discussion of potential solutions - Focus on problems rather than progress made Ratings: Goodreads: 4.0/5 (43 ratings) Amazon: 4.4/5 (21 ratings) Several readers noted the book "reads like a detailed newspaper analysis" and praised its "thorough documentation." Critics called it "one-sided" and "lacking balance in assessing post-apartheid achievements." One reviewer wrote: "Important facts but needs more constructive alternatives for South Africa's future."

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🔹 The book's title deliberately echoes Johnson's earlier 1977 work of the same name, which correctly predicted the end of apartheid would come in the early 1990s 🔹 R.W. Johnson was once a fellow at Magdalen College, Oxford, and has been living in and writing about South Africa for over 40 years 🔹 The book examines how the ANC's policies after gaining power mirror those of the National Party during apartheid, particularly in terms of patronage and racial preferences 🔹 Johnson's analysis suggests that South Africa's economic decline under the ANC has been more severe than Zimbabwe's early years under Mugabe 🔹 The author faced significant backlash in South Africa for comparing elements of ANC governance to the apartheid regime, despite his strong anti-apartheid credentials