Forage Michel de Montaigne · Essays · I.47 Of the Uncertainty of Our Judgment
Michel de Montaigne · Essays

I.47 Of the Uncertainty of Our Judgment

De l’incertitude de nostre iugement · On questions of war, good arguments exist on both sides; Montaigne shows how uncertain our judgment of strategy is.

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    C’EST bien ce que dit ce vers, Επεων δε πολυς νομος ενθα και ενθα. il y a prou de loy de parler par tout, et pour et contre. Pour exemple: Vince Hannibal, et non seppe vsar’ poi / Ben la vittoriosa sua ventura.

    It is just as this line says: Wide is the range of words, this way and that: there is ample license to speak on every side, both for and against. For example: Hannibal conquered, but did not then know how / to make good use of his victorious fortune.

    Homer, Iliad, XX; the Italian lines are from Petrarch’s Canzoniere.

    Qui voudra estre de ce party, et faire valoir auecques nos gens, la faute de n’auoir dernierement poursuiuy nostre pointe à Moncontour; ou qui voudra accuser le Roy d’Espaigne, de n’auoir sçeu se seruir de l’aduantage qu’il eut contre nous à Sainct Quentin; il pourra dire cette faute partir d’vne ame enyurée de sa bonne fortune, et d’vn courage, lequel plein et gorgé de ce commencement de bon heur, perd le goust de l’accroistre, des-ja par trop empesché à digerer ce qu’il en a: il en a sa brassée toute comble, il n’en peut saisir dauantage: indigne que la fortune luy aye mis vn tel bien entre mains: car quel profit en sent-il, si neantmoins il donne à son ennemy moyen de se remettre sus?

    Whoever wants to take this side, and make much, with our people, of the mistake of not having pressed home our advantage at Moncontour recently; or whoever wants to accuse the King of Spain of not having known how to use the advantage he had over us at Saint-Quentin, may say that this mistake comes from a soul drunk with its good fortune, and from a heart which, full and gorged with this first taste of success, loses its appetite for increasing it, already too busy digesting what it has. It has its arms full to overflowing and cannot grasp any more—unworthy that Fortune should have put such a good into its hands. For what profit does it get from it if it nonetheless gives its enemy the means to get back on his feet?

    Moncontour (1569) was a royal victory over the Protestants; at Saint-Quentin (1557) the Spanish routed the French.

    Quell’ esperance peut-on auoir qu’il ose vn’ autre fois attaquer ceux-cy ralliez et remis, et de nouueau armez de despit et de vengeance, qui ne les a osé ou sçeu poursuiure tous rompus et effrayez? Dum fortuna calet, dum conficit omnia terror? Mais en fin, que peut-il attendre de mieux, que ce qu’il vient de perdre? Ce n’est pas comme à l’escrime, où le nombre des touches donne gain: tant que l’ennemy est en pieds, c’est à recommencer de plus belle: ce n’est pas victoire, si elle ne met fin à la guerre.

    What hope can one have that he will dare attack them another time, once they are rallied and restored and newly armed with spite and vengeance, when he did not dare, or did not know how, to pursue them while they were all broken and terrified? While fortune is hot, while terror is finishing everything? But in the end, what better can he expect than what he has just lost? It is not as in fencing, where the number of hits wins the bout: as long as the enemy is on his feet, it is all to begin again, harder than ever. It is no victory if it does not put an end to the war.

    Lucan, Pharsalia, VII.

    En cette escarmouche où Cæsar eut du pire pres la ville d’Oricum, il reprochoit aux soldats de Pompeius, qu’il eust esté perdu, si leur Capitaine eust sçeu vaincre: et luy chaussa bien autrement les esperons, quand ce fut à son tour.

    In that skirmish near the town of Oricum where Caesar got the worst of it, he taunted Pompey’s soldiers that he would have been lost if their captain had known how to win; and he put on his spurs in quite another way when it was his turn.

    Mais pourquoy ne dira-on aussi au contraire? que c’est l’effect d’vn esprit precipiteux et insatiable, de ne sçauoir mettre fin à sa conuoitise: que c’est abuser des faueurs de Dieu, de leur vouloir faire perdre la mesure qu’il leur a prescripte: et que de se reietter au danger apres la victoire, c’est la remettre encore vn coup à la mercy de la fortune: que l’vne des plus grandes sagesses en l’art militaire, c’est de ne pousser son ennemy au desespoir. Sylla et Marius en la guerre sociale ayans défaict les Marses, en voyans encore vne trouppe de reste, qui par desespoir se reuenoient ietter à eux, comme bestes furieuses, ne furent pas d’aduis de les attendre.

    But why may one not also argue the contrary? That it is the mark of a headlong and insatiable mind not to know how to set a limit to its greed; that it is an abuse of God’s favors to want to make them overstep the measure he has prescribed for them; that to throw oneself back into danger after the victory is to put it once more at the mercy of Fortune; that one of the greatest pieces of wisdom in the art of war is not to drive one’s enemy to despair. Sulla and Marius, in the Social War, having defeated the Marsi, and seeing a band of survivors coming back out of despair to hurl themselves at them like furious beasts, did not see fit to wait for them.

    The Social War (91–88 BC) was fought between Rome and its Italian allies.

    Si l’ardeur de Monsieur de Foix ne l’eust emporté à poursuiure trop asprement les restes de la victoire de Rauenne, il ne l’eust pas souillée de sa mort. Toutesfois encore seruit la recente memoire de son exemple, à conseruer Monsieur d’Anguien de pareil inconuenient, à Serisoles. Il fait dangereux assaillir vn homme, à qui vous auez osté tout autre moyen d’eschapper que par les armes: car c’est vne violente maistresse d’escole que la necessité: grauissimi sunt morsus irritatæ necessitatis.

    If Monsieur de Foix’s ardor had not carried him away into pursuing the remnants of the victory at Ravenna too fiercely, he would not have sullied it with his death. Yet the fresh memory of his example served to keep Monsieur d’Enghien from a similar mishap at Ceresole. It is dangerous to attack a man whom you have deprived of every other means of escape but arms; for necessity is a violent schoolmistress: the bites of necessity, once provoked, are the most grievous.

    Gaston de Foix was killed pursuing the Spanish after his victory at Ravenna (1512); the Count of Enghien won at Ceresole (1544). The Latin is from Porcius Latro’s Declamation against Catiline.

    Vincitur haud gratis, iugulo qui prouocat hostem. Voyla pourquoy Pharax empescha le Roy de Lacedemone, qui venoit de gaigner la iournée contre les Mantineens, de n’aller affronter mille Argiens, qui estoient eschappez entiers, de la desconfiture: ains les laisser couler en liberté, pour ne venir à essayer la vertu picquée et despittée par le malheur. Clodomire Roy d’Aquitaine, apres sa victoire, poursuiuant Gondemar Roy de Bourgongne vaincu et fuyant, le força de tourner teste, mais son opiniastreté luy osta le fruict de sa victoire, car il y mourut.

    He is not conquered cheaply who offers his throat to the enemy. That is why Pharax prevented the King of Sparta, who had just won the day against the Mantineans, from going to confront a thousand Argives who had escaped intact from the rout, and had him let them slip away freely, so as not to come up against a valor stung and enraged by misfortune. Clodomir, King of Aquitaine, after his victory, pursuing Gondemar, King of Burgundy, who was beaten and in flight, forced him to turn and face him; but his stubbornness robbed him of the fruit of his victory, for he died there.

    Lucan, Pharsalia, IV. Clodomir, son of Clovis, was killed at Vézeronce in AD 524.

    Pareillement qui auroit à choisir ou de tenir ses soldats richement et somptueusement armez, ou armez seulement pour la necessité: il se presenteroit en faueur du premier party, duquel estoit Sertorius, Philopœmen, Brutus, Cæsar, et autres, que c’est tousiours vn éguillon d’honneur et de gloire au soldat de se voir paré, et vn’ occasion de se rendre plus obstiné au combat, ayant à sauuer ses armes, comme ses biens et heritages. Raison, dit Xenophon, pourquoy les Asiatiques menoyent en leurs guerres, femmes, concubines, auec leurs ioyaux et richesses plus cheres.

    Likewise, if one had to choose between keeping one’s soldiers richly and sumptuously armed or armed only for necessity, there would be put forward in favor of the first course—which was the view of Sertorius, Philopoemen, Brutus, Caesar and others—that it is always a spur of honor and glory to a soldier to see himself finely adorned, and a reason to make himself more stubborn in combat, having his arms to save as if they were his goods and inheritance. That is the reason, says Xenophon, why the Asiatics took their wives and concubines to their wars, along with their jewels and most precious riches.

    Mais il s’offriroit aussi de l’autre part, qu’on doit plustost oster au soldat le soing de se conseruer, que de le luy accroistre: qu’il craindra par ce moyen doublement à se hazarder: ioint que c’est augmenter à l’ennemy l’enuie de la victoire, par ces riches despouilles: et a lon remarqué que d’autres fois cela encouragea merueilleusement les Romains à l’encontre des Samnites. Antiochus montrant à Hannibal l’armée qu’il preparoit contr’ eux pompeuse et magnifique en toute sorte d’equippage, et luy demandant. Les Romains se contenteront-ils de cette armée? S’ils s’en contenteront? respondit-il, vrayement ouy, pour auares qu’ils soyent.

    But on the other side it would also be put forward that one should rather take away from a soldier his concern for preserving himself than increase it; that this way he will be doubly afraid to risk himself; and besides, that these rich spoils increase the enemy’s desire for victory. It has been observed that on other occasions this wonderfully encouraged the Romans against the Samnites. Antiochus was showing Hannibal the army he was preparing against them, splendid and magnificent in every sort of equipment, and asked him: “Will the Romans be satisfied with this army?” “Will they be satisfied with it?” he replied. “Truly, yes, however greedy they may be.”

    Lycurgus deffendoit aux siens non seulement la sumptuosité en leur equippage, mais encore de despouiller leurs ennemis vaincus, voulant, disoit-il, que la pauureté et frugalité reluisist auec le reste de la battaille.

    Lycurgus forbade his people not only sumptuousness in their equipment but even stripping their defeated enemies, wishing, he said, that poverty and frugality should shine along with the rest of the battle.

    Aux sieges et ailleurs, où l’occasion nous approche de l’ennemy, nous donnons volontiers licence aux soldats de le brauer, desdaigner, et iniurier de toutes façons de reproches: et non sans apparence de raison. Car ce n’est pas faire peu, de leur oster toute esperance de grace et de composition, en leur representant qu’il n’y a plus ordre de l’attendre de celuy, qu’ils ont si fort outragé, et qu’il ne reste remede que de la victoire.

    In sieges and elsewhere, when circumstances bring us close to the enemy, we readily give our soldiers license to defy him, scorn him and insult him with every kind of taunt. And there is some show of reason in it. For it is no small thing to take away from them all hope of mercy and of terms, by showing them that they can no longer expect these from the man they have so grossly insulted, and that the only remedy left is victory.

    Si est-ce qu’il en mesprit à Vitellius: car ayant affaire à Othon, plus foible en valeur de soldats, des-accoustumez de longue main du faict de la guerre, et amollis par les délices de la ville, il les agassa tant en fin, par ses paroles picquantes, leur reprochant leur pusillanimité, et le regret des Dames et festes, qu’ils venoient de laisser à Rome, qu’il leur remit par ce moyen le cœur au ventre, ce que nuls enhortemens n’auoient sçeu faire: et les attira luy-mesme sur ses bras, où lon ne les pouuoit pousser.

    Yet it turned out badly for Vitellius. He was up against Otho, whose soldiers were of weaker mettle, long out of the habit of war and softened by the pleasures of the city. In the end he goaded them so much with his stinging words, taunting them with their faint-heartedness and their longing for the ladies and feasts they had just left behind in Rome, that by this means he put fresh heart into them, which no exhortations had been able to do. He himself drew them down upon his own head, when no one had been able to push them forward.

    Vitellius and Otho fought for the Roman throne in AD 69; the episode is from Tacitus’ Histories.

    Et de vray, quand ce sont iniures qui touchent au vif, elles peuuent faire aisément, que celuy qui alloit laschement à la besongne pour la querelle de son Roy, y aille d’vne autre affection pour la sienne propre.

    And indeed, when insults cut to the quick, they can easily make a man who was going sluggishly about the business in his king’s quarrel go at it with quite another feeling in his own.

    A considerer de combien d’importance est la conseruation d’vn chef en vn’ armée, et que la visée de l’ennemy regarde principalement cette teste, à laquelle tiennent toutes les autres, et en dependent: il semble qu’on ne puisse mettre en doubte ce conseil, que nous voyons auoir esté pris par plusieurs grands chefs, de se trauestir et desguiser sur le point de la meslée.

    When we consider how important it is to preserve the commander of an army, and that the enemy aims chiefly at that head, on which all the others hang and depend, it seems that no one could question the course we see several great commanders have taken: changing their dress and disguising themselves at the moment of battle.

    Toutesfois l’inconuenient qu’on encourt par ce moyen, n’est pas moindre que celuy qu’on pense fuir: car le Capitaine venant à estre mescognu des siens, le courage qu’ils prennent de son exemple et de sa presence, vient aussi quant et quant à leur faillir; et perdant la veuë de ses marques et enseignes accoustumées, ils le iugent ou mort, ou s’estre desrobé desesperant de l’affaire. Et quant à l’experience, nous luy voyons fauoriser tantost l’vn tantost l’autre party.

    Yet the drawback incurred this way is no less than the one you are trying to avoid. For when the captain is not recognized by his own men, the courage they draw from his example and his presence fails them along with it; and losing sight of his usual marks and insignia, they judge that he is dead, or that he has slipped away in despair of the outcome. And as for experience, we see it favor now one side, now the other.

    L’accident de Pyrrhus en la battaille qu’il eut contre le consul Leuinus en Italie, nous sert à l’vn et l’autre visage: car pour s’estre voulu cacher sous les armes de Demogacles, et luy auoir donné les siennes, il sauua bien sans doute sa vie, mais aussi il en cuida encourir l’autre inconuenient de perdre la iournée. Alexandre, Cæsar, Lucullus, aimoient à se marquer au combat par des accoustremens et armes riches, de couleur reluisante et particuliere: Agis, Agesilaus, et ce grand Gilippus au rebours, alloyent à la guerre obscurement couuerts, et sans attour imperial.

    What happened to Pyrrhus in the battle he fought against the consul Laevinus in Italy serves us on both counts. By choosing to hide under the armor of Demogacles and giving him his own, he did indeed save his life, no doubt; but he very nearly incurred the other drawback, of losing the day. Alexander, Caesar and Lucullus liked to mark themselves out in battle by rich dress and armor of a gleaming and distinctive color; Agis, Agesilaus and the great Gylippus, on the contrary, went to war plainly clad, without the trappings of command.

    Pyrrhus defeated Laevinus at Heraclea in 280 BC; Plutarch calls the officer Megacles.

    A la battaille de Pharsale entre autres reproches qu’on donne à Pompeius, c’est d’auoir arresté son armée pied coy attendant l’ennemy: pour autant que cela (ie desroberay icy les mots mesmes de Plutarque, qui valent mieux que les miens) affoiblit la violence, que le courir donne aux premiers coups, et quant et quant oste l’eslancement des combattans les vns contre les autres, qui a accoustumé de les remplir d’impetuosité, et de fureur, plus qu’autre chose, quand ils viennent à s’entrechocquer de roideur, leur augmentant le courage par le cry et la course: et rend la chaleur des soldats en maniere de dire refroidie et figée. Voyla ce qu’il dit pour ce rolle.

    At the battle of Pharsalus, among other reproaches leveled at Pompey is that he halted his army and stood still waiting for the enemy. For this (I shall steal Plutarch’s very words here, which are better than mine) weakens the violence that running gives to the first blows, and at the same time removes the rush of the combatants against one another, which more than anything usually fills them with impetuosity and fury when they come to clash headlong, the shouting and the running increasing their courage; and it leaves the soldiers’ ardor, so to speak, cooled and congealed. That is what he says on this score.

    At Pharsalus in Thessaly, in 48 BC, Caesar defeated Pompey.

    Mais si Cæsar eust perdu, qui n’eust peu aussi bien dire, qu’au contraire, la plus forte et roide assiette, est celle en laquelle on se tient planté sans bouger, et que qui est en sa marche arresté, resserrant et espargnant pour le besoing, sa force en soy-mesmes, a grand aduantage contre celuy qui est esbranlé, et qui a desia consommé à la course la moitié de son haleine? outre ce que l’armée estant vn corps de tant de diuerses pieces, il est impossible qu’elle s’esmeuue en cette furie, d’vn mouuement si iuste, qu’elle n’en altere ou rompe son ordonnance: et que le plus dispost ne soit aux prises, auant que son compagnon le secoure.

    But if Caesar had lost, who could not just as well have said the opposite: that the strongest and firmest position is the one in which you stand planted without moving, and that the man who halts in his march, gathering and saving his strength within himself for when it is needed, has a great advantage over the man who is on the move and has already used up half his breath in running? Besides, since an army is a body made of so many different parts, it is impossible for it to move in this frenzy with such precision that it does not disturb or break its formation, and that the nimblest man is not already at grips before his comrade can come to his aid.

    En cette villaine battaille des deux freres Perses, Clearchus, Lacedemonien, qui commandoit les Grecs du party de Cyrus, les mena tout bellement à la charge, sans se haster: mais à cinquante pas pres, il les mit à la course: esperant par la brieueté de l’espace, mesnager et leur ordre, et leur haleine: leur donnant cependant l’auantage de l’impetuosité, pour leurs personnes, et pour leurs armes à trait. D’autres ont reglé ce doubte en leur armée de cette maniere: Si les ennemis vous courent sus, attendez les de pied coy: s’ils vous attendent de pied coy, courez leur sus.

    In that ugly battle between the two Persian brothers, Clearchus the Lacedaemonian, who commanded the Greeks on Cyrus’ side, led them to the charge quite slowly, without hurrying; but at fifty paces off he set them running, hoping by the shortness of the distance to husband both their order and their breath, while still giving them the advantage of impetus, both for their persons and for their missile weapons. Others have settled this question for their armies in this way: if the enemy charge at you, wait for them standing still; if they wait for you standing still, charge at them.

    The battle of Cunaxa (401 BC), where Cyrus the Younger fought his brother, King Artaxerxes II.

    Au passage que l’Empereur Charles cinquiesme fit en Prouence, le Roy François fut au propre d’eslire, ou de luy aller au deuant en Italie, ou de l’attendre en ses terres: et bien qu’il considerast combien c’est d’auantage, de conseruer sa maison pure et nette des troubles de la guerre, afin qu’entiere en ses forces, elle puisse continuellement fournir deniers, et secours au besoing: que la necessité des guerres porte à tous les coups, de faire le gast, ce qui ne se peut faire bonnement en nos biens propres, et si le païsant ne porte pas si doucement ce rauage de ceux de son party, que de l’ennemy, en maniere qu’il s’en peut aysément allumer des seditions, et des troubles parmy nous: que la licence de desrober et piller, qui ne peut estre permise en son païs, est vn grand support aux ennuis de la guerre:

    When the Emperor Charles V invaded Provence, King Francis was in a position to choose either to go and meet him in Italy or to wait for him in his own lands. He considered how great an advantage it is to keep one’s house clean and clear of the troubles of war, so that, with its strength intact, it can continually supply money and help when needed; that the necessities of war constantly require laying waste, which cannot well be done to one’s own property, and that the peasant does not bear such ravaging by his own side as meekly as by the enemy, so that seditions and troubles may easily flare up among us; that the license to steal and plunder, which cannot be allowed in one’s own country, is a great support in the hardships of war;

    Charles V invaded Provence in 1536; Francis I of France.

    et qui n’a autre esperance de gain que sa solde, il est mal aisé qu’il soit tenu en office, estant à deux pas de sa femme et de sa retraicte: que celuy qui met la nappe, tombe tousiours des despens: qu’il y a plus d’allegresse à assaillir qu’à deffendre: et que la secousse de la perte d’vne battaille dans nos entrailles, est si violente, qu’il est malaisé qu’elle ne croulle tout le corps, attendu qu’il n’est passion contagieuse, comme celle de la peur, ny qui se prenne si aisément à credit, et qui s’espande plus brusquement: et que les villes qui auront ouy l’esclat de cette tempeste à leurs portes, qui auront recueilly leurs Capitaines et soldats tremblans encore, et hors d’haleine, il est dangereux sur la chaude, qu’ils ne se iettent à quelque mauuais party: Si est-ce qu’il choisit de r’appeller les forces qu’il auoit delà les monts, et de voir venir l’ennemy.

    and that a man who has no other hope of gain than his pay is hard to keep to his duty when he is two steps from his wife and his home; that the one who lays the table always bears the cost; that there is more zest in attacking than in defending; and that the shock of losing a battle in our very bowels is so violent that it can hardly fail to shake the whole body, since there is no passion so contagious as fear, none so easily taken on credit, none that spreads more swiftly; and that the towns which have heard the crash of this storm at their gates, and have taken in their captains and soldiers still trembling and out of breath, are in danger, in the heat of the moment, of throwing themselves into some bad course. Nevertheless he chose to recall the forces he had beyond the mountains and to watch the enemy come.

    Car il peut imaginer au contraire, qu’estant chez luy et entre ses amis, il ne pouuoit faillir d’auoir planté de toutes commoditez, les riuieres, les passages à sa deuotion, luy conduiroient et viures et deniers, en toute seureté et sans besoing d’escorte: qu’il auroit ses subiects d’autant plus affectionnez, qu’ils auroient le danger plus pres: qu’ayant tant de villes et de barrieres pour sa seureté, ce seroit à luy de donner loy au combat, selon son opportunité et aduantage:

    For he could imagine, on the contrary, that being at home and among his friends, he could not fail to have plenty of every convenience; that the rivers and passes, being at his command, would bring him both provisions and money in complete safety and without need of escort; that he would find his subjects all the more devoted the closer the danger came to them; that having so many towns and barriers for his security, it would be up to him to set the terms of battle according to his opportunity and advantage;

    et s’il luy plaisoit de temporiser, qu’à l’abry et à son aise, il pourroit voir morfondre son ennemy, et se deffaire soy mesme, par les difficultez qui le combattroyent engagé en vne terre contraire, où il n’auroit deuant ny derriere luy, ny à costé, rien qui ne luy fist guerre: nul moyen de rafraichir ou d’eslargir son armée, si les maladies s’y mettoient, ny de loger à couuert ses blessez; nuls deniers, nuls viures, qu’à pointe de lance; nul loisir de se reposer et prendre haleine; nulle science de lieux, ny de pays, qui le sçeust deffendre d’embusches et surprises: et s’il venoit à la perte d’vne bataille, aucun moyen d’en sauuer les reliques.

    and that if he chose to play for time, he could watch from shelter and at his ease while his enemy languished and wore himself down, beset by the difficulties that would assail him as he pressed on in a hostile land, where there would be nothing in front of him, behind him or on either side that was not making war on him: no means of refreshing his army or spreading it out if sickness broke out, nor of lodging his wounded under cover; no money, no provisions, except at the point of the lance; no leisure to rest and catch his breath; no knowledge of the places or the country to protect him from ambushes and surprises; and if he came to lose a battle, no means of saving what was left.

    Et n’auoit pas faute d’exemples pour l’vn et pour l’autre party.

    And there was no lack of examples for either course.

    Scipion trouua bien meilleur d’aller assaillir les terres de son ennemy en Afrique, que de deffendre les siennes, et le combatre en Italie où il estoit; d’où bien luy print. Mais au rebours Hannibal en cette mesme guerre, se ruina, d’auoir abandonné la conqueste d’vn pays estranger, pour aller deffendre le sien. Les Atheniens ayans laissé l’ennemy en leurs terres, pour passer en la Sicile, eurent la fortune contraire: mais Agathocles Roy de Syracuse l’eut fauorable, ayant passé en Afrique, et laissé la guerre chez soy.

    Scipio found it far better to go and attack his enemy’s lands in Africa than to defend his own and fight him in Italy, where he was; and it turned out well for him. But Hannibal, on the contrary, in that same war, ruined himself by abandoning the conquest of a foreign country to go and defend his own. The Athenians, having left the enemy in their lands to cross to Sicily, had Fortune against them; but Agathocles, king of Syracuse, had her on his side, having crossed into Africa and left the war at home.

    Scipio’s African campaign ended the Second Punic War at Zama (202 BC); the Athenian expedition to Sicily (415–413 BC) ended in disaster; Agathocles invaded Carthaginian Africa in 310 BC.

    Ainsi nous auons bien accoustumé de dire auec raison, que les euenemens et issuës dependent, notamment en la guerre, pour la plus part, de la fortune: laquelle ne se veut pas renger et assuiettir à nostre discours et prudence, comme disent ces vers. Et malè consultis pretium est prudentia fallax; / Nec fortuna probat causas sequitúrque merentes, / Sed vaga per cunctos nullo descrimine fertur. / Scilicet est aliud quod nos cogátque regátque / Maius, et in proprias ducat mortalia leges. Mais à le bien prendre, il semble que nos conseils et deliberations en despendent bien autant; et que la fortune engage en son trouble et incertitude, aussi nos discours.

    So we are quite accustomed to say, and with reason, that events and outcomes depend for the most part, especially in war, on Fortune, who will not fall into line with and submit to our reasoning and prudence, as these lines say: Ill-laid plans are often rewarded, and prudence deceives; / Fortune does not examine causes or follow the deserving, / But roams through all without distinction. / Clearly there is something greater that compels and rules us, / And leads mortal things under its own laws. But, rightly taken, it seems that our counsels and deliberations depend on her just as much, and that Fortune draws our reasoning too into her turmoil and uncertainty.

    Manilius, Astronomica.

    Nous raisonnons hazardeusement et temerairement, dit Timæus en Platon, par ce que, comme nous, noz discours ont grande participation à la temerité du hazard.

    We reason rashly and at random, says Timaeus in Plato, because, like ourselves, our reasonings have a large share in the rashness of chance.